Bovine mortality: the utility of two data sources for the provision of population-level surveillance intelligence.

Introduction: The use of existing data to provide surveillance intelligence is widely advocated but often presents considerable challenges. Two data sources could be used as proxies for the mortality experienced by the Scottish cattle population: deaths recorded in the mandatory register [Cattle Tracing System (CTS)] and fallen stock collections by the National Fallen Stock Company (NSFCo) with a nationwide voluntary membership. Methods: Data for the period 2011-2016 were described and compared to establish their strengths and limitations. Similarities and differences in their temporal, seasonal and spatial patterns were examined overall, at postcode area level and for different age groups. Temporal aberration detection algorithms (TADA) were fitted. Results: Broadly, similar patterns were observed in the two datasets; however, there were some notable differences. The observed seasonal, annual and spatial patterns match expectations, given knowledge of Scottish cattle production systems. The registry data provide more comprehensive coverage of all areas of Scotland, while collections data provide a more comprehensive measure of the mortality experienced in 0-1-month-old calves. Discussion: Consequently, estimates of early calf mortality and their impact on the livestock sector made using CTS, or successor registers, will be under-estimates. This may apply to other registry-based systems. Fitted TADA detected points of deviations from expected norms some of which coincided in the two datasets; one with a known external event that caused increased mortality. We have demonstrated that both data sources do have the potential to be utilized to provide measures of mortality in the Scottish cattle population that could inform surveillance activities. While neither is perfect, they are complementary. Each has strengths and weaknesses, so ideally, a system where they are analyzed and interpreted in parallel would optimize the information obtained for surveillance purposes for epidemiologists, risk managers, animal health policy-makers and the wider livestock industry sector. This study provides a foundation on which to build an operational system. Further development will require improvements in the timeliness of data availability and further investment of resources.

Phylogenetic relationship and virulence composition of Escherichia coli O26:H11 cattle and human strain collections in Scotland; 2002-2020.

O26 is the commonest non-O157 Shiga toxin (stx)-producing Escherichia coli serogroup reported in human infections worldwide. Ruminants, particularly cattle, are the primary reservoir source for human infection. In this study, we compared the whole genomes and virulence profiles of O26:H11 strains (n = 99) isolated from Scottish cattle with strains from human infections (n = 96) held by the Scottish Escherichia coli O157/STEC Reference Laboratory, isolated between 2002 and 2020. Bovine strains were from two national cross-sectional cattle surveys conducted between 2002-2004 and 2014-2015. A maximum likelihood phylogeny was constructed from a core-genome alignment with the O26:H11 strain 11368 reference genome. Genomes were screened against a panel of 2,710 virulence genes using the Virulence Finder Database. All stx-positive bovine O26:H11 strains belonged to the ST21 lineage and were grouped into three main clades. Bovine and human source strains were interspersed, and the stx subtype was relatively clade-specific. Highly pathogenic stx2a-only ST21 strains were identified in two herds sampled in the second cattle survey and in human clinical infections from 2010 onwards. The closest pairwise distance was 9 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) between Scottish bovine and human strains and 69 SNPs between the two cattle surveys. Bovine O26:H11 was compared to public EnteroBase ST29 complex genomes and found to have the greatest commonality with O26:H11 strains from the rest of the UK, followed by France, Italy, and Belgium. Virulence profiles of stx-positive bovine and human strains were similar but more conserved for the stx2a subtype. O26:H11 stx-negative ST29 (n = 17) and ST396 strains (n = 5) were isolated from 19 cattle herds; all were eae-positive, and 10 of these herds yielded strains positive for ehxA, espK, and Z2098, gene markers suggestive of enterohaemorrhagic potential. There was a significant association (p < 0.001) between nucleotide sequence percent identity and stx status for the bacteriophage insertion site genes yecE for stx2 and yehV for stx1. Acquired antimicrobial resistance genes were identified in silico in 12.1% of bovine and 17.7% of human O26:H11 strains, with sul2, tet, aph(3″), and aph(6″) being most common. This study describes the diversity among Scottish bovine O26:H11 strains and investigates their relationship to human STEC infections.

Analysis of Escherichia coli O157 strains in cattle and humans between Scotland and England & Wales: implications for human health.

For the last two decades, the human infection frequency of Escherichia coli O157 (O157) in Scotland has been 2.5-fold higher than in England and Wales. Results from national cattle surveys conducted in Scotland and England and Wales in 2014/2015 were combined with data on reported human clinical cases from the same time frame to determine if strain differences in national populations of O157 in cattle could be associated with higher human infection rates in Scotland. Shiga toxin subtype (Stx) and phage type (PT) were examined within and between host (cattle vs human) and nation (Scotland vs England and Wales). For a subset of the strains, whole genome sequencing (WGS) provided further insights into geographical and host association. All three major O157 lineages (I, II, I/II) and most sub-lineages (Ia, Ib, Ic, IIa, IIb, IIc) were represented in cattle and humans in both nations. While the relative contribution of different reservoir hosts to human infection is unknown, WGS analysis indicated that the majority of O157 diversity in human cases was captured by isolates from cattle. Despite comparable cattle O157 prevalence between nations, strain types were localized. PT21/28 (sub-lineage Ic, Stx2a+) was significantly more prevalent in Scottish cattle [odds ratio (OR) 8.7 (2.3-33.7; P<0.001] and humans [OR 2.2 (1.5-3.2); P<0.001]. In England and Wales, cattle had a significantly higher association with sub-lineage IIa strains [PT54, Stx2c; OR 5.6 (1.27-33.3); P=0.011] while humans were significantly more closely associated with sub-lineage IIb [PT8, Stx1 and Stx2c; OR 29 (4.9-1161); P<0.001]. Therefore, cattle farms in Scotland were more likely to harbour Stx2a+O157 strains compared to farms in E and W (P<0.001). There was evidence of limited cattle strain migration between nations and clinical isolates from one nation were more similar to cattle isolates from the same nation, with sub-lineage Ic (mainly PT21/28) exhibiting clear national association and evidence of local transmission in Scotland. While we propose the higher rate of O157 clinical cases in Scotland, compared to England and Wales, is a consequence of the nationally higher level of Stx2a+O157 strains in Scottish cattle, we discuss the multiple additional factors that may also contribute to the different infection rates between these nations.

Corrigendum: Evaluations of the disease surveillance centre network in Scotland: what parts has it reached?

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2023.1099057.].

Evaluations of the Disease Surveillance Centre network in Scotland: What parts has it reached?

Regular evaluation is a prerequisite for systems that provide surveillance of animal populations. Scotland's Rural College Veterinary Services' Disease Surveillance Centre (DSC) network plays an integral part in surveillance to detect new and re-emerging threats within animal populations, predominantly livestock. In response to surveillance reviews and proposed changes to the network, an initial evaluation of diagnostic submissions data in 2010 to mid-2012 established a baseline "footprint," while highlighting challenges with the data. In this recent evaluation for the period 2013­2018, we developed a new denominator using a combination of agricultural census and movement data, to identify relevant holdings more accurately. Iterative discussions between those processing submissions data and those involved in collection at source took place to understand the intricacies of the data, establish the most appropriate dataset, and develop the processes required to optimise the data extraction and cleansing. The subsequent descriptive analysis identifies the number of diagnostic submissions, the number of unique holdings making submissions to the network and shows that both the surrounding geographic region of, and maximum distance to the closest DSC vary greatly between centres. Analysis of those submissions classed as farm animal post-mortems also highlights the effect of distance to the closest DSC. Whether specific differences between the time periods are due to changes in the behavior of the submitting holdings or the data extraction and cleaning processes was difficult to disentangle. However, with the improved techniques producing better data to work with, a new baseline footprint for the network has been created. This provides information that can help policy makers and surveillance providers make decisions about service provision and evaluate the impact of future changes. Additionally, the outputs of these analyses can provide feedback to those employed in the service, providing evidence of what they are achieving and why changes to data collection processes and ways of working are being made. In a different setting, other data will be available and different challenges may arise. However, the fundamental principles highlighted in these evaluations and the solutions developed should be of interest to any surveillance providers generating similar diagnostic data.

Genome structural variation in Escherichia coli O157:H7.

The human zoonotic pathogen Escherichia coli O157:H7 is defined by its extensive prophage repertoire including those that encode Shiga toxin, the factor responsible for inducing life-threatening pathology in humans. As well as introducing genes that can contribute to the virulence of a strain, prophage can enable the generation of large-chromosomal rearrangements (LCRs) by homologous recombination. This work examines the types and frequencies of LCRs across the major lineages of the O157:H7 serotype. We demonstrate that LCRs are a major source of genomic variation across all lineages of E. coli O157:H7 and by using both optical mapping and Oxford Nanopore long-read sequencing prove that LCRs are generated in laboratory cultures started from a single colony and that these variants can be recovered from colonized cattle. LCRs are biased towards the terminus region of the genome and are bounded by specific prophages that share large regions of sequence homology associated with the recombinational activity. RNA transcriptional profiling and phenotyping of specific structural variants indicated that important virulence phenotypes such as Shiga-toxin production, type-3 secretion and motility can be affected by LCRs. In summary, E. coli O157:H7 has acquired multiple prophage regions over time that act to continually produce structural variants of the genome. These findings raise important questions about the significance of this prophage-mediated genome contingency to enhance adaptability between environments.

High Prevalence and Factors Associated With the Distribution of the Integron intI1 and intI2 Genes in Scottish Cattle Herds.

Integrons are genetic elements that capture and express antimicrobial resistance genes within arrays, facilitating horizontal spread of multiple drug resistance in a range of bacterial species. The aim of this study was to estimate prevalence for class 1, 2, and 3 integrons in Scottish cattle and examine whether spatial, seasonal or herd management factors influenced integron herd status. We used fecal samples collected from 108 Scottish cattle herds in a national, cross-sectional survey between 2014 and 2015, and screened fecal DNA extracts by multiplex PCR for the integrase genes intI1, intI2, and intI3. Herd-level prevalence was estimated [95% confidence interval (CI)] for intI1 as 76.9% (67.8-84.0%) and intI2 as 82.4% (73.9-88.6%). We did not detect intI3 in any of the herd samples tested. A regional effect was observed for intI1, highest in the North East (OR 11.5, 95% CI: 1.0-130.9, P = 0.05) and South East (OR 8.7, 95% CI: 1.1-20.9, P = 0.04), lowest in the Highlands. A generalized linear mixed model was used to test for potential associations between herd status and cattle management, soil type and regional livestock density variables. Within the final multivariable model, factors associated with herd positivity for intI1 included spring season of the year (OR 6.3, 95% CI: 1.1-36.4, P = 0.04) and watering cattle from a natural spring source (OR 4.4, 95% CI: 1.3-14.8, P = 0.017), and cattle being housed at the time of sampling for intI2 (OR 75.0, 95% CI: 10.4-540.5, P < 0.001). This study provides baseline estimates for integron prevalence in Scottish cattle and identifies factors that may be associated with carriage that warrant future investigation.

Estimating antimicrobial usage based on sales to beef and dairy farms from UK veterinary practices.

BACKGROUND: Accurate estimation of antimicrobial use (AMU) is important in assessing reduction of agricultural AMU. This cross-sectional study aimed to evaluate several approaches for estimating AMU at the herd level and to report on AMU for beef and dairy farms in Scotland. METHODS: Pharmaceutical sales data for 75 cattle herds (2011-2015) were screened for antimicrobial products and aggregated by herd and year. Several denominators for usage estimates were calculated and compared for their suitability at the herd level. RESULTS: The median total mass of active ingredient sold per kg of bovine livestock was 9.5 mg/kg for beef herds and 14.3 mg/kg for dairy herds. The 'highest priority critically important' antimicrobials (HPCIA) were by total mass of active ingredient, 10.6% of all sales; by total defined daily dose veterinary (DDDVet), 29.8% and by DCDvet, 20.0%. These are the first estimates of AMU for beef cattle in the UK, and for cattle of any kind in Scotland. Estimates of herd-level usage based on population correction unit (PCU) were sensitive to low values for PCU for specific herd-years due to their demographic composition. CONCLUSION: Pharmaceutical sales data can provide useful estimates of AMU, but estimating usage per PCU is not appropriate for comparing groups of cattle with different demographic compositions or for setting herd-level targets. Total mass of active ingredient per kilogram of livestock is more stable and hence suitable than PCU-based methods for assessing AMU at the herd level.

Prevalence and Epidemiology of Non-O157 Escherichia coli Serogroups O26, O103, O111, and O145 and Shiga Toxin Gene Carriage in Scottish Cattle, 2014-2015.

Cattle are a reservoir for Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), zoonotic pathogens that cause serious clinical disease. Scotland has a higher incidence of STEC infection in the human population than the European average. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence and epidemiology of non-O157 serogroups O26, O103, O111, and O145 and Shiga toxin gene carriage in Scottish cattle. Fecal samples (n = 2783) were collected from 110 herds in 2014 and 2015 and screened by real-time PCR. Herd-level prevalence (95% confidence interval [CI]) for O103, O26, and O145 was estimated as 0.71 (0.62, 0.79), 0.43 (0.34, 0.52), and 0.23 (0.16, 0.32), respectively. Only two herds were positive for O111. Shiga toxin prevalence was high in both herds and pats, particularly for stx2 (herd level: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.0). O26 bacterial strains were isolated from 36 herds on culture. Fifteen herds yielded O26 stx-positive isolates that additionally harbored the intimin gene; six of these herds shed highly pathogenic stx2-positive strains. Multiple serogroups were detected in herds and pats, with only 25 herds negative for all serogroups. Despite overlap in detection, regional and seasonal effects were observed. Higher herd prevalence for O26, O103, and stx1 occurred in the South West, and this region was significant for stx2 at the pat level (P = 0.015). Significant seasonal variation was observed for O145 prevalence, with the highest prevalence in autumn (P = 0.032). Negative herds were associated with Central Scotland and winter. Herds positive for all serogroups were associated with autumn and larger herd size and were not housed at sampling.IMPORTANCE Cattle are reservoirs for Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), bacteria shed in animal feces. Humans are infected through consumption of contaminated food or water and by direct contact, resulting in serious disease and kidney failure in the most vulnerable. The contribution of non-O157 serogroups to STEC illness was underestimated for many years due to the lack of specific tests. Recently, non-O157 human cases have increased, with O26 STEC of particular note. It is therefore vital to investigate the level and composition of non-O157 in the cattle reservoir and to compare them historically and by the clinical situation. In this study, we found cattle prevalence high for toxin, as well as for O103 and O26 serogroups. Pathogenic O26 STEC were isolated from 14% of study herds, with toxin subtypes similar to those seen in Scottish clinical cases. This study highlights the current risk to public health from non-O157 STEC in Scottish cattle.

The Use of Sheep Movement Data to Inform Design and Interpretation of Slaughterhouse-Based Surveillance Activities.

The design of surveillance strategies is often a compromise between science, feasibility, and available resources, especially when sampling is based at fixed locations, such as slaughter-houses. Advances in animal identification, movement recording and traceability should provide data that can facilitate the development, design and interpretation of surveillance activities. Here, for the first time since the introduction of electronic identification of sheep, the utility of a statutory sheep movement database to inform the design and interpretation of slaughter-house based surveillance activities has been investigated. Scottish sheep movement records for 2015-2018 were analyzed in combination with several other data sources. Patterns of off-farm movements of Scottish sheep to slaughter were described and the spatial distribution of several distinct slaughter populations, throughputs and catchment areas for Scottish slaughterhouses were determined. These were used to evaluate the coverage of a convenience-sample slaughter-house based survey for antimicrobial resistance (AMR). In addition, non-slaughter sheep movements within and between Scottish regions were described and inter-and intra-regional movement matrices were produced. There is potential at a number of levels for bias in spatially-associated factors for ovine surveillance activities based at Scottish slaughterhouses. The first is intrinsic because the slaughtered in Scotland population differs from the overall Scottish sheep slaughter population. Other levels will be survey-dependent and occur when the catchment area differs from the slaughtered in Scotland population and when the sampled sheep differ from the catchment area. These are both observed in the AMR survey. Furthermore, the Scottish non-slaughter sheep population is dynamic. Inter-regional movements vary seasonally, driven by the sheep calendar year, structure of the Scottish sheep industry and management practices. These sheep movement data provide a valuable resource for surveillance purposes, despite a number of challenges and limitations that were encountered. They can be used to identify and characterize the spatial origin of relevant populations and so inform the interpretation of existing slaughterhouse-based surveillance activities. They can be used to improve future design by exploring the feasibility and cost:benefit of alternative sampling strategies. Further development could also contribute to other surveillance activities, such as situational awareness and resource allocation, for the benefit of stakeholders.

The British E. coli O157 in cattle study (BECS): factors associated with the occurrence of E. coli O157 from contemporaneous cross-sectional surveys.

BACKGROUND: Escherichia coli O157 is a bacterial pathogen associated with severe disease in humans for which cattle are an important reservoir of infection. The identification of possible risk factors for infection in cattle could facilitate the development of control strategies and interventions to mitigate the risk to human health. The purpose of this study was to utilize data collected in 2014-2015 during the two contemporaneous cross-sectional surveys of the British E. coli O157 in Cattle Study (BECS) to investigate potential risk factors for E. coli O157 status in cattle destined for the food chain. RESULTS: In the England & Wales survey only one variable, herd size, was associated with the outcome farm-level E. coli O157 positive status. The odds increased for each additional animal in the herd. In the Scotland survey, as well as a measure of herd size (the number of cattle aged 12-30 months), having brought breeding females on to the farm in the last year also increased the odds, whereas farms sampled in spring were less likely to be positive compared to those sampled in autumn. On the positive farms, in both surveys, an increase in the proportion of pats positive for E. coli O157 was associated with animals being housed at the time of sampling. However, the effect of housing on pat-level prevalence within positive groups was lower on farms from England & Wales than from Scotland (OR 0.45 (95% C.I. 0.24-0.86)). CONCLUSION: For the first time, factors associated with farm-level E. coli O157 status have been investigated in two contemporaneous surveys with comparable study design. Although factors associated with farm-level E. coli O157 status differed between the two surveys, one consistent factor was an association with a measure of herd size. Factors associated with the proportion of E. coli O157 positive pats within a positive farm were similar in both surveys but differed from those associated with farm-level status. These findings raise the hypothesis that measures to protect public health by reducing the risk from cattle may need to be tailored, rather than by assuming that a GB-wide protocol is the best approach.

Syndromic surveillance by veterinary practitioners: a pilot study in the pig sector.

Traditional indicator-based livestock surveillance has been focused on case definitions, definitive diagnoses and laboratory confirmation. The use of syndromic disease surveillance would increase the population base from which animal health data are captured and facilitate earlier detection of new and re-emerging threats to animal health. Veterinary practitioners could potentially play a vital role in such activities. In a pilot study, specialist private veterinary practitioners (PVP) working in the English pig industry were asked to collect and transfer background data and disease incident reports for pig farms visited during the study period. Baseline data from 110 pig farms were received, along with 68 disease incident reports. Reports took an average of approximately 25 minutes to complete. Feedback from the PVPs indicated that they saw value in syndromic surveillance. Maintenance of anonymity in the outputs would be essential, as would timely access for the PVPs to relevant information on syndromic trends. Further guidance and standardisation would also be required. Syndromic surveillance by PVPs is possible for the pig industry. It has potential to fill current gaps in the collection of animal health data, as long as the engagement and participation of data providers can be obtained and maintained.

Review of pig health and welfare surveillance data sources in England and Wales.

The capability to set baselines and monitor trends of health and welfare conditions is an important requirement for livestock industries in order to maintain economic competitiveness and sustainability. Monitoring schemes evaluate the relative importance of conditions so that: appropriate actions can be determined, prioritised and implemented; new and (re)emerging conditions can be promptly detected and the effectiveness of any actions can be measured. In 2011, the national pig levy board published a strategy document highlighting health and welfare conditions of importance to the pig industry that were to be targeted for control. In this study, existing schemes that could be used to monitor or set baselines for these conditions in pigs were reviewed, in order to evaluate their suitability for this purpose, using a standardised surveillance evaluation framework (SERVAL). The schemes included: government-funded surveillance of endemic and exotic disease and pig welfare; industry surveillance of endemic diseases; regional schemes for improving pig health; national accreditation schemes and information collected by retailers, private veterinary practices and private laboratories. The evaluation of each scheme highlights its capability to monitor any of the targeted conditions. This study identifies the biases, strengths and gaps in each scheme and provides discussion of opportunities for future development.

Improving the Utility of Voluntary Ovine Fallen Stock Collection and Laboratory Diagnostic Submission Data for Animal Health Surveillance Purposes: A Development Cycle.

There are calls from policy-makers and industry to use existing data sources to contribute to livestock surveillance systems, especially for syndromic surveillance. However, the practical implications of attempting to use such data sources are challenging; development often requires incremental steps in an iterative cycle. In this study the utility of business operational data from a voluntary fallen stock collection service was investigated, to determine if they could be used as a proxy for the mortality experienced by the British sheep population. Retrospectively, Scottish ovine fallen stock collection data (2011-2014) were transformed into meaningful units for analysis, temporal and spatial patterns were described, time-series methods and a temporal aberration detection algorithm applied. Distinct annual and spatial trends plus seasonal patterns were observed in the three age groups investigated. The algorithm produced an alarm at the point of an historic known departure from normal (April 2013) for two age groups, across Scotland as a whole and in specific postcode areas. The analysis was then extended. Initially, to determine if similar methods could be applied to ovine fallen stock collections from England and Wales for the same time period. Additionally, Scottish contemporaneous laboratory diagnostic submission data were analyzed to see if they could provide further insight for interpretation of statistical alarms. Collaboration was required between the primary data holders, those with industry sector knowledge, plus veterinary, epidemiological and statistical expertise, in order to turn data and analytical outcomes into potentially useful information. A number of limitations were identified and recommendations were made as to how some could be addressed in order to facilitate use of these data as surveillance "intelligence." e.g., improvements to data collection and provision. A recent update of the fallen stock collections data has enabled a longer temporal period to be analyzed, with evidence of changes made in line with the recommendations. Further development will be required before a functional system can be implemented. However, there is potential for use of these data as: a proxy measure for mortality in the sheep population; complementary components in a future surveillance system, and to inform the design of additional surveillance system components.

Co-infection with Fasciola hepatica may increase the risk of Escherichia coli O157 shedding in British cattle destined for the food chain.

Escherichia coli O157 is a zoonotic bacterium that can cause haemorrhagic diarrhoea in humans and is of worldwide public health concern. Cattle are considered to be the main reservoir for human infection. Fasciola hepatica is a globally important parasite of ruminant livestock that is known to modulate its host's immune response and affect susceptibility to bacterial pathogens such as Salmonella Dublin. Shedding of E. coli O157 is triggered by unknown events, but the immune system is thought to play a part. We investigated the hypothesis that shedding of E. coli O157 is associated with F. hepatica infection in cattle. Three hundred and thirty four cattle destined for the food chain, from 14 British farms, were tested between January and October 2015. E. coli O157 was detected by immunomagnetic separation and bacterial load enumerated. F. hepatica infection status was assessed by copro-antigen ELISA. A significant association (p=0.01) was found between the log percent positivity (PP) of the F. hepatica copro-antigen ELISA and E. coli O157 shedding when the fixed effects of day of sampling and the age of the youngest animal in the group, plus the random effect of farm were adjusted for. The results should be interpreted cautiously due to the lower than predicted level of fluke infection in the animals sampled. Nevertheless these results indicate that control of F. hepatica infection may have an impact on the shedding of E. coli O157 in cattle destined for the human food chain.

Pig Abattoir Inspection Data: Can It Be Used for Surveillance Purposes?

Statutory recording of carcass lesions at the abattoir may have significant potential as a resource for surveillance of livestock populations. Food Standards Agency (FSA) data in Great Britain are not currently used for surveillance purposes. There are concerns that the sensitivity of detection, combined with other issues, may make the outputs unreliable. In this study we postulate that FSA data could be used for surveillance purposes. To test this we compared FSA data with BPHS (a targeted surveillance system of slaughtered pigs) and laboratory diagnostic scanning surveillance (FarmFile) data, from mid-2008 to mid-2012, for respiratory conditions and tail bite lesions in pigs at population level. We also evaluated the agreement/correlation at batch level between FSA and BPHS inspections in four field trials during 2013. Temporal trends and regional differences at population level were described and compared using logistic regression models. Population temporal analysis showed an increase in respiratory disease in all datasets but with regional differences. For tail bite, the temporal trend and monthly patterns were completely different between the datasets. The field trials were run in three abattoirs and included 322 batches. Pearson's correlation and Cohen's kappa tests were used to assess correlation/agreement between inspections systems. It was moderate to strong for high prevalence conditions but slight for low prevalence conditions. We conclude that there is potential to use FSA data as a component of a surveillance system to monitor temporal trends and regional differences of chosen indicators at population level. At producer level and for low prevalence conditions it needs further improvement. Overall a number of issues still need to be addressed in order to provide the pig industry with the confidence to base their decisions on these FSA inspection data. Similar conclusions, at national level, may apply to other livestock sectors but require further evaluation of the inspection and data collection processes.

The feasibility of testing whether Fasciola hepatica is associated with increased risk of verocytotoxin producing Escherichia coli O157 from an existing study protocol.

The parasite Fasciola hepatica is a major cause of economic loss to the agricultural community worldwide as a result of morbidity and mortality in livestock, including cattle. Cattle are the principle reservoir of verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli O157 (VTEC O157), an important cause of disease in humans. To date there has been little empirical research on the interaction between F. hepatica and VTEC O157. It is hypothesised that F. hepatica, which is known to suppress type 1 immune responses and induce an anti-inflammatory or regulatory immune environment in the host, may promote colonisation of the bovine intestine with VTEC O157. Here we assess whether it is statistically feasible to augment a prospective study to quantify the prevalence of VTEC O157 in cattle in Great Britain with a pilot study to test this hypothesis. We simulate data under the framework of a mixed-effects logistic regression model in order to calculate the power to detect an association effect size (odds ratio) of 2. In order to reduce the resources required for such a study, we exploit the fact that the test results for VTEC O157 will be known in advance of testing for F. hepatica by restricting analysis to farms with a VTEC O157 sample prevalence of >0% and <100%. From a total of 270 farms (mean 27 cows per farm) that will be tested for VTEC O157, power of 87% can be achieved, whereby testing of F. hepatica would only be necessary for an expected 50 farms, thus considerably reducing costs. Pre-study sample size calculations are an important part of any study design. The framework developed here is applicable to the study of other co-infections.

The evaluation of exposure risks for natural transmission of scrapie within an infected flock.

BACKGROUND: Although the epidemiology of scrapie has been broadly understood for many years, attempts to introduce voluntary or compulsory controls to eradicate the disease have frequently failed. Lack of precision in defining the risk factors on farm has been one of the challenges to designing control strategies. This study attempted to define which parts of the annual flock management cycle represented the greatest risk of infection to naive lambs exposed to the farm environment at different times. RESULTS: In VRQ/VRQ lambs exposed to infected sheep at pasture or during lambing, and exposed to the buildings in which lambing took place, the attack rate was high and survival times were short. Where exposure was to pasture alone the number of sheep affected in each experimental group was reduced, and survival times were longer and related to length of exposure. CONCLUSION: At the flock level, eradication and control strategies for scrapie must take into account the need to decontaminate buildings used for lambing, and to reduce (or prevent) the exposure of lambs to infected sheep, especially in the later stages of incubation, and at lambing. The potential for environmental contamination from pasture should also be considered. Genotype selection may still prove to be the only viable tool to prevent infection from contaminated pasture, reduce environmental contamination and limit direct transmission from sheep to sheep.